Resource KT
Related Articles
With the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals selected LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase. Reunited with former quarterback Joe Burrow, Chase enters one of the league’s most formidable passing attacks. With needs across the offensive line and Penei Sewell available, the Bengals’ decision to pick Chase suggests they have immediate plans for their young rookie. While Chase has an elite athletic profile and historic college output, he enters a crowded depth picture with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Now, the soaring scorecard, deciphering this receiving body of the Bengals remains crucial to the success of fantasy in 2021.
This piece will first take a look at Chase’s college output and what to expect at the NFL level. Next, we’ll take a look at Chase’s potential fit with the Cincinnati Bengals and determine how that might influence the offense as a whole.
Editor’s Note: Read more player profiles from the rest of the 4for4 staff!
Ja’Marr Chase Athletic Phenom
Entering LSU as a consensus four-star prospect, Chase actually ranked behind fellow rookie Terrace Marshall in the 2018 class. However, Chase quickly became the true alpha of that class. While Chase caught just 23 passes for 313 yards and three scores as a rookie, he showed glimpses of future stardom at the end of the season. Chase has only hit 30 receiving yards once in his first seven games, before hitting that mark in each of his last three games. Chase also capped his first season with a 93-yard performance against UCF in the team’s bowling game.
Heading into Chase’s second season, the aspiring star exploded for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns on 84 receptions during his winning season at Biletnikoff. Officially, this gave Chase an escape age of 19.6 and a college domineering rating of 33.9%. College Dominator refers to the total percentage of yards and touchdowns produced by a player in their final season, while breakout age refers to a player’s age in their first season, representing 20% of yards and touchdowns received in his attack. Already possessing an elite production profile, Chase has decided to sit back on his accomplishments and retire from the 2020 college football season.
| Opponent | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South georgia | 3 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Texas | ten | 8 | 147 | 0 |
| Vanderbilt | 11 | ten | 229 | 4 |
| State of Utah | 5 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Florida | ten | 7 | 127 | 2 |
| Mississippi State | 11 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Auburn | 11 | 8 | 123 | 0 |
| Alabama | 11 | 6 | 140 | 1 |
| Ole Miss | ten | 8 | 227 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 7 | 6 | 144 | 2 |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 7 | 197 | 2 |
| Georgia | 6 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 61 | 0 |
| Clemson | 14 | 9 | 221 | 2 |
From an efficiency standpoint, Chase ticks every box as well. With Justin Jefferson operating in the slot machine, Chase played 85.8% of his shots outside, alternating between the left and right sides of the court. Chase led the country with 14 touchdowns over 20 yards, averaging 21.2 yards per reception. More impressive still, he won downstream against some of the best corners in the college game. Chase recorded 137 yards and a pair of scores against AJ Terrell of Clemson and another 88 yards and a score against Trevon Diggs of Alabama. He even had 89 yards and a pair of scores against CJ Henderson of Florida. All three corners would then be drafted within the second lap or so.
With all of these accomplishments already under his belt, Chase dispelled any doubts with elite test numbers on LSU Professional Day. Standing 6-foot-0, 201 pounds, Chase recorded a 4.38-yard dash, giving him one of the best height-adjusted speed scores in this class. A rare asset in a class filled with prototype slots, Chase’s mix of size and athleticism warranted a top-five selection by Cincinnati.
Offensive Cup in Cincinnati
While Cincinnati might have other needs, Chase fits into a reception hall with proven Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins weapons. AJ Green is leaving 104 targets himself, but overall target volume remains a slight concern for Chase. Boyd and Higgins recorded 110 and 108 targets respectively in the same offense. With Higgins and Boyd contributing 908 yards and 841 yards respectively, a target share well above 20% seems high for Chase in the first year. By comparison, Boyd, Higgins and Green recorded target shares of 20.9%, 19.0% and 18.4% last year.
From an efficiency standpoint, the entire Bengals offense should benefit from Chase’s presence. Last year, Green showed a significant drop with his catch rate dropping from 58.7% to 45.2%, according to Justin Edwards of 4for4. Interestingly, Burrow maintained a target rate of 78.0%, which suggests the problem was with the green. Supporting this theory, Green also ranked 132nd out of 132 receivers qualified in separation.
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | YAC | a point | Yards / Road |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler boyd | 110 | 79 | 841 | 4 | 360 | 8.8 | 1.65 |
| Higgins T-shirt | 108 | 67 | 908 | 6 | 311 | 12.9 | 1.83 |
| AJ Green | 104 | 47 | 523 | 2 | 94 | 14.1 | 1.02 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (LSU) | 121 | 84 | 1780 | 20 | 684 | 14.3 | 3.52 |
Looking at Cincinnati’s offensive structure under head coach Zac Taylor, Chase could easily get into the targets released by Green. With Green playing 79% of his shots outdoors, Chase makes a logical replacement and also leaves Boyd in the slot machine. Cincinnati also led 11 people at the highest rate last year and still has no tight end to it. More importantly, the Bengals placed third in overall success rate ahead of Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. The two factors should combine to give Chase a solid opportunity in the first year, despite playing on a crowded depth chart.
With three separate receivers hitting 100 goals in Cincinnati last year, Chase’s opportunity might be better than initially expected. However, Chase’s ADP overhaul has already overtaken Higgins and Boyd. Now coming off the board on lap 3/4, Chase’s ADP leaves little headroom without injury to a teammate. However, both Higgins and Boyd continue to come off the board outside of the first five rounds and have a legitimate advantage. The Bengals just selected Higgins with the 33rd overall pick in 2020, while Boyd has three consecutive seasons of at least 841 yards and two in 1,000 during that span. While Chase is exciting, the pendulum swings too much in his direction.
As for the Dynasty Leagues, Chase holds immense long-term potential at age 21. As mentioned above, the Bengals continue to rebuild their offense, with a heavy passing approach in mind. 4for4 Dynasty expert George Kritikos currently has Chase as his WR1 and the second overall player in the Rookie Dynasties. Likewise, Kritikos ranks Chase WR13 and the 27th global startup player in the dynasty.
At the end of the line
With elite athletic measures, collegiate production and an immediate path to playing time, Chase still faces significant target competition in Cincinnati. While Chase can easily outshine 100 targets, it is still significantly more expensive than its proven counterparts. At Underdog Fantasy, Chase exits the board of your choice 48.4. Meanwhile, Higgins and Boyd hold an ADP of 61.6 and 78.9, respectively. Both of these products have been proven successful, taking a cheaper attachment to the Bengals’ explosive attack seems to be the most profitable long-term strategy here.
