There’s a lot going on in the markets right now, but the simple fact that the calendar continues to shift and the harvest is getting closer and closer to reality is the biggest market factor at play.
“The only fact is, every day we get a little closer to harvesting,” says Don Roose, president of US Commodities in West Des Moines.
The next two weeks could be important as the crop enters the pollination phase and the forecast for much of the Corn Belt calls for high temperatures. But if the harvest survives this period, it will be even closer to harvest.
For that reason, Roose says farmers should look to make sure they’ve marketed the percentage of this fall’s crop that they feel comfortable with. There is little incentive to wait for higher pre-harvest prices.
Of course, many other factors weigh on the market.
One of the factors weighing on the market is inflation and high energy prices. Economists worry about ongoing inflation, and high energy prices are a major driver of that inflation. Food prices rank not far behind energy on this inflation concern meter. All of this involves a discussion of input costs and also the possibility that consumer demand will decline.
There are also fears that the economy could enter a recession. It could also have an impact on food prices.
And the dollar has gone up in value. That may be good news for some travelers heading overseas, but it’s bad news for grain exports. The trade will watch the price of the dollar in the coming months.
Finally, the second corn crop is now rolling out of the field in Brazil, which means more grain is moving into the international pipeline.
All of these items have the potential to drive prices down, Roose says. But the most influential element in the market will always be the calendar and the autumn harvest.