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The stark contrast between the two announcements, however, is emblematic of the challenges the world faces in transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner renewables, as efforts to tackle climate change become more urgent and widespread across the world.
The IEA report on the road to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, released on May 18, warned that investments in oil, natural gas and coal projects must end if the target has a chance to be reached.
There is no doubt that this is a major call and a substantive change from the previous positions of the IEA, but the main question is whether the objective of the IEA is even achievable remotely.
Certainly, there is evidence and hope that the massive shift in energy sources needed for net zero emissions might be possible in parts of the developed world, most likely in Europe and North America.
But the key to the success of the IEA’s goal of net zero is Asia, and here the agency’s proposed path faces its greatest challenges, and quite possibly its failures.
It’s easy to take Australia as an example of the challenge Asia will face in weaning itself off fossil fuels, and the cheap path to economic growth it has provided so far.
Australia’s Conservative government has, in some ways, witnessed the recalcitation of action on climate change, with its oft-stated support for fossil fuels and a policy designed to encourage their development and use.
On May 18, Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor said his government would use his wholly owned Snowy Hydro to build a 600 million Australian dollars ($ 464 million) 660 megawatt gas power plant at Kurri Kurri, a regional area north of the country’s largest city, Sydney.
The rationale is that the private power companies have not acted to replace the disappearing coal units and that the gas generator is needed to maintain the stability of the electricity supply.
This position has been challenged by private Australian utilities, government regulators and politicians across the spectrum, including some within Taylor’s ruling Liberal Party.
Even though the need for back-up generation is accepted, which is not the case with all parties, renewable solutions such as wind, solar and battery storage are likely to offer better value for money. , the same, if not more, reliability and zero carbon. emissions when in operation.
What appears to be at stake in Australia is a politically motivated energy market, rather than a market where best policies and practices are implemented.
The current federal government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made no secret of its support for fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, while several state governments, including those controlled by Morrison’s party, favor renewables, such as most of the country’s private and electricity producers do. retailers.
LACK OF REGIONAL SUPPORT
In some ways, Australia is the canary of the coal mine when it comes to broader energy policy in the region.
China, the world’s largest coal miner, importer and consumer, shows little sign of weaning from polluting fuel, pursuing massive coal-fired power generation, with 88.1 gigawatts currently under construction, or about half of the world total. .
Japan, India and other countries in Asia are still building coal-fired generators, albeit at ever slower rates, but these assets will likely continue to operate for decades as most are designed to operate for at least 40 years.
The message to stop natural gas developments is also likely to fall on largely deaf ears in Asia, as the region is currently considering building more infrastructure to produce, transport and use liquefied natural gas (LNG). .
LNG is seen by countries like Japan, China, and South Korea as essential to their future energy needs, and even if these countries actually try to meet their net-zero emissions targets, LNG will likely remain a part of it. their energy mix for decades. come.
The IEA path foresees a massive switch to renewable electricity for future energy use as a way to end dependence on fossil fuels.
However, in Asia this currently seems unrealistic, especially given the opposition of many governments in the region, even those who are committed to achieving net zero goals.
