Alpha – Resource KT http://resourcekt.co.uk/ Tue, 21 Jun 2022 09:08:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://resourcekt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/cropped-icon-32x32.png Alpha – Resource KT http://resourcekt.co.uk/ 32 32 SoFi Stock: Recovering our bullish bias (NASDAQ:SOFI) https://resourcekt.co.uk/sofi-stock-recovering-our-bullish-bias-nasdaqsofi/ Tue, 21 Jun 2022 09:08:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/sofi-stock-recovering-our-bullish-bias-nasdaqsofi/

Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesNews

Price Action Thesis

We follow with a detailed analysis of the price action on SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) stock from our previous article, as there have been significant developments in its price action.

As we said, SOFI stock has seen sustained selling pressure at its near-term resistance, as the market rejected buying momentum from its May low.

The recent sell-off has forced SOFI back near its May lows, but we have noticed that this could be a near-term bottom. Accordingly, we believe it is appropriate to revise our sell rating to speculative long pending the retest of price action. We also urge sellers who have sold short to consider hedging their positions. Notably, selling pressure failed to wipe out its May lows, which is positive for the stock.

Our reverse cash flow valuation analysis indicates that SoFi could meet its revenue targets through CQ2’26 at current levels. But, our metrics are premised on the noticeable improvement in SoFi’s profitability in FCF throughout FY24. Therefore, investors should consider our baseline less reliable than average and should therefore demand a higher hurdle rate. raised to add exposure.

As such, we are revising our speculative buy sell rating. However, we did not see any trap price action from the bear to signal a potential reversal of its bearish bias. Therefore, investors should consider employing appropriate risk management strategies to minimize steep losses for SOFI shares if their May low does not hold.

SOFI’s May Low Holds Well So Far

SOFI Price Chart (Weekly)

SOFI Price Chart (Weekly) (TradingView)

SOFI stock surged from its May lows and formed a bullish trap at its short-term resistance, as we postulated in our previous article (Sell Note). As a result, SOFI stock has fallen around 25% (at the time of writing) since our last article was published.

Notably, bear trap price action that can help stem further decline remains elusive. Therefore, we have not observed a price action trigger that could signal a lasting reversal in its bearish momentum.

Nonetheless, we have noticed that its price action may be bottoming above its May lows and starting to base (but still too early to validate). Therefore, more conservative investors may consider watching sustained consolidation in SOFI shares before adding exposure. If not, it seems possible that SOFI will hold onto its May lows and potentially form a bearish trap price trigger thereafter.

SOFI assessment is less aggressive now

Store SOFI
Current market capitalization $5.22 billion
Hurdle Rate of Return (CAGR) 30%
Projection through CQ2’26
FCF yield required in CQ2’26 2.5%
TTM FCF margin assumed in CQ2’26 12.5%
Implied TTM revenue by CQ2’26 $2.98 billion

Reverse cash flow valuation model for SOFI shares. Data source: S&P Cap IQ, author

Given its more constructive price action, we have revised our reverse cash flow valuation model to try to model the market valuation of SOFI shares.

We believe a minimum rate of 30% is appropriate, down from our previous rate of 35%. However, we have increased our FCF return requirement (which we use for typical high-growth opportunities) to 2.5%, up from our previous requirement of 2%. Therefore, we intended to strengthen our model but give space to SoFi to prove its ability to grow rapidly.

We have applied a TTM FCF margin of 12.5%, significantly lower than the Street consensus (analysts are optimistic) for FY24, to account for an appropriate discount. Therefore, we have arrived at a TTM revenue requirement of $2.98 billion for SoFi to release by CQ2’26.

Revised consensus estimates indicate that SoFi could generate revenue of $2.74 billion in FY24. As a result, SoFi is expected to generate a revenue CAGR of 5.76% of FY24-CQ2’26.

We believe it is possible for SoFi to meet our revenue targets at the current valuation as long as it continues to execute. Nonetheless, it is imperative for SoFi to continue improving its FCF profitability. Therefore, investors should carefully monitor management’s comments and guidance on its profitability, as this could have a significant impact on its valuation.

Additionally, SoFi is expected to remain unprofitable on a GAAP EPS basis, which could affect investor sentiment.

Is the SOFI share a buy, a sell or a hold?

We are revising our rating on SOFI shares from speculative Sell to Buy. Given its unprofitability, we urge investors to be disciplined with their hurdle rates. Moreover, its profitability estimates in FCF remain very speculative for the moment.

Nevertheless, we think it could be at a near-term low. Therefore, it is essential to observe how the market intends to price SOFI shares as the selling pressure has been absorbed at current levels. Therefore, it is constructive to help SOFI stock consolidate/base at current levels going forward.

However, we did not see any trapping price action from the bear to help thwart its bearish momentum. As a result, further selling to force liquidation before forming a validated bear trap cannot be ruled out. Accordingly, investors are advised to employ sound risk management, given its dominant bearish momentum.

]]>
The Fed creates room for the slowdown https://resourcekt.co.uk/the-fed-creates-room-for-the-slowdown/ Sun, 19 Jun 2022 16:29:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/the-fed-creates-room-for-the-slowdown/

JimVallée/iStock via Getty Images

Introduction

Last Wednesday, the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the first time since 1994, levitating the FFR in a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. Market expectations have changed drastically following CPI inflation the previous week, with CPI inflation coming in higher than expected at 8.6% in May (vs. 8.3% exp.). Policy makers have also revised their PCE inflation forecast at 5.2% for 2022versus 4.3% in their March projections.

Powell also signaled another “big move” for the July meeting to continue the fight against inflation, with the market split between 50 basis points and 75 basis points higher. According to the Fed CME Watch Tool (Figure 1), the implied probability of a 75 basis point hike is currently 86.2% (compared to 13.8% for a 50 basis point hike).

Figure 1

CME

CME

Even though the aggressive response from U.S. policymakers is primarily aimed at easing inflationary pressures as inflation continues to accelerate globally, part of the decision was also made to create headroom for the economic downturn. , which continues to approach very rapidly.

The economic outlook is deteriorating

Since the start of the year, we have seen a series of leading economic indicators price in a significant deceleration in economic activity. For example, the OECD’s “diffusion index,” which looks at the percentage of countries with rising leading economic indicators (LEIs), incorporates a significant deceleration in business activity. Chart 2 shows that the OECD’s “diffusion” index has strongly led the 6-month global manufacturing PMI over the past 25 years and currently assesses a global PMI at 46. The latest times the PMI global manufacturer fell to 46, it was in 2001, 2008 and 2020; these periods were associated with massive sell-offs in the markets.

Figure 2

LEI

Bloomberg, OECD, RR

Financial conditions also factor in significant downward readjustments in the United States

Although the risk of recession has particularly increased in Europe after the war in Ukraine, business surveys sharply slowing prices in the medium term, the economic situation has also deteriorated sharply in the United States.

In addition to soaring 30-year mortgage rates (nearly 6%) pushing homebuilders to drastically cut prices as they are hit by both lower demand (globally) and high material and labor costs, financial conditions also factored in a significant decline in economic conditions. readjustments in activity.

Figure 3 shows that the dramatic tightening of financial conditions in the United States (YoY) factors in a further drop in the ISM manufacturing PMI (proxy of real economic activity in the United States). It is important to know that the relationship between the PMI and US real growth is not linear when the PMI falls below 50 (a move from 48 to 46 is generally associated with a greater impact on economic growth than a passage from 50 to 48, etc.).

picture 3

United States fS

Bloomberg

What happened to the “Fed Reaction Function”?

With rising global inflationary pressures since the start of the year, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and a steadily deteriorating economic outlook, investors fear a “stagflationary” outcome, which has historically been the worst quadrant for the steps. The surge in inflation risk globally has made bonds vulnerable since the start of the year, and market uncertainty combined with the sharp tightening of ST rates has led to a drop in risky assets, with US equities having dropped nearly 25% from their January high.

Figure 4 shows that equity returns tend to collapse when inflation exceeds 4%; in this chart, we calculate average monthly US stock returns for different inflation brackets using Robert Shiller’s monthly data since 1871.

When inflation rises well above 4%, business uncertainty in terms of investments tends to skyrocket and the market begins to price in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which implicitly puts investors in a difficult position, as most assets in the financial markets tend to experience selling pressure.

Figure 4

inflation

Reuters, RR

So, with stock markets down 25% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the Fed will eventually “put” an implicit floor on risky assets to prevent a further deceleration in economic activity. . The last time we saw sharp stock market declines was in Q4 2018 and Q1 2020, which were immediately offset by a strong “dovish” reaction from the Fed.

We believe this time around is different due to the current level of inflation, and we expect the Fed to maintain its “hawkish” stance in the short to medium term by initiating a series of aggressive hikes, aimed at reining in inflation from year to year. end of 2023, then immediately start cutting rates as economic activity is likely to be in recession within the next 12-18 months.

Further aggressive rate hikes are likely to invert the 2Y10Y yield curve before seeing the marked “steepening” that occurs during economic downturns (Figure 5)

Figure 5

Yield curve

Reuters

The US dollar will hit new highs

We still expect the US Dollar to outperform in the current environment, taking each consolidation as an opportunity to buy the dip in the DXY (UUP). Even though the US dollar looks expensive (the DXY index trading at a 20-year high), market uncertainty, the hawkish Fed, and the “stagflationary” outlook will make the dollar more “safe”.

In addition, further yield curve flattening could also support the USD in the short term; Figure 6 shows that periods of significant declines in the 2Y10Y yield curve have been associated with USD strength (and vice versa).

Figure 6

YIELD CURVE IN USD

Reuters

Reuters

Long US Dollar against EUR, GBP

The rising risk of recession between the euro zone and the United States will continue to weigh on the single currency, with the EURUSD expected to reach parity this year. Additionally, risk aversion sentiment will also weigh on the British pound, which has historically been the worst performing currency in a high volatility regime. Figure 7 shows the average monthly performance of the most liquid currencies against the dollar when the VIX exceeds 20 over the past 30 years.

Picture 7

FXVIX

Bloomberg, RR

Conclusion

To conclude, the Fed should maintain its “hawkish” position in the short term in order to create additional headroom for the next economic downturn (H2 2023/early 2024), leaving risky assets vulnerable and thus pushing the preference for the US dollar.

]]>
BlackSky Technology: The View From Above (NYSE: BKSY) https://resourcekt.co.uk/blacksky-technology-the-view-from-above-nyse-bksy/ Fri, 17 Jun 2022 16:40:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/blacksky-technology-the-view-from-above-nyse-bksy/

BlackJack3D/E+ via Getty Images

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you find out who swam naked.” -Warren Buffett

Today we take an in-depth look at small cap concerns for the first time BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE: BKSY). BlackSky went public late last summer through a merger with Osprey Technology Acquisition. Like so many of these SPAC debuts in 2021, stocks find themselves deep in IPO territory. However, the company is seeing impressive revenue growth in its fast-growing market niche. An analysis follows below.

Stock chart

Looking for Alpha

Company presentation:

BlackSky Technology Inc. is based just outside of Washington DC. The stock trades for just under two dollars per share and sports an approximate market capitalization of $240 million. BlackSky provides geospatial intelligence, imagery and related data analysis products and services, and mission systems. These include the development, integration and operation of satellite and terrestrial systems for customers’ commercial and government applications. The company provides this information and data through its Spectra AI SaaS platform which is powered by its proprietary network of space and ground sensors.

BlackSky’s constellation of on-demand satellites (a total of 14 right now after launching two satellites on April 2) can image a location multiple times throughout the day. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) owns a stake in BlackSky. BlackSky also has a multi-year software subscription agreement with Palantir to access the Palantir Foundry enterprise platform, and the company offers a solution that combines Palantir Foundry with its Spectra AI to expand the delivery of deep analytics and high resolution images to its customers.

Data structure

Company presentation

1st quarter results:

On May 11, the company released the first quarter results. BlackSky posted a net loss on a GAAP basis of 17 cents per share. Revenue rose 90% from the same period a year ago to just under $14 million, which far exceeded expectations. Of this amount, revenue from imaging and software analytics services amounted to $9.8 million. This was primarily due to increased demand from new and existing government contracts. This segment now represents approximately 70% of total revenue and has increased by 63% compared to the same period a year ago. Gross margin fell to 21.2% from 24.5% in 1Q2021. Management attributed this primarily to ‘higher engineering and systems integration expenses largely attributable to one-time design costs and material procurement costs”.

Management maintained its full-year revenue forecast of $58 million to $62 million. That would represent 76% revenue growth over fiscal 2021 in the middle of that range. Cap-Ex is expected to be between $52 million and $56 million, down from last year as management believes it has sufficient capacity to meet customer demand. On June 15, management reaffirmed advice and also announced a new chief financial officer.

At the end of May, the National Recognition Office announcement its largest commercial imaging contract effort worth billions of dollars over time. BlackSky was one of three companies chosen with Planet Labs (PL) and Maxar Technology (MAXR). The global contract came into effect at the end of May this year with a five-year base and several one-year options with further growth until 2032.

Analysts’ comments and results:

On May 12, Benchmark lowered its price target on BKSY to $6 from $8 previously while maintaining its buy rating on the stock. This is the only analyst firm comment I can find on BlackSky so far in 2022. Just under 10% of the open float in this stock is currently sold short. After posting a net loss of $20 million in the quarter, the company had just over $138 million in cash and marketable securities as of March 31 this year, compared to just over $70 million. dollars of long-term debt. An insider bought $32,000 worth of stock in late February. This is the only insider activity in the stock so far in 2022.

Verdict:

The only analyst firm that has provided projection around BlackSky, the company is losing 81 cents per share this year as revenue nearly doubled to $67.5 million in fiscal 2022. Net loss is expected to drop to 47 cents per share in fiscal 2023, with revenue growing nearly 90% to $127 million.

BlackSky is in an interesting and growing niche of the market. The current conflict in Ukraine has underscored the vital importance of real-time ground intelligence for military, commercial, humanitarian and other applications. The market has crushed nearly every small-cap growth name profitlessly in recent months, regardless of their growth prospects. It remains a headwind.

This stock seems reasonably priced based on the price of future sales, especially when net cash on the balance sheet is taken into consideration. I recently profile Planet Labs and took a ‘watch the article‘ holding in this similar concern. I plan to do the same with BlackSky Technology. We expect to revisit BlackSky in 2023 as sales continue to gain momentum and hopefully net losses come down significantly.

“It’s a way to take people’s wealth away from them without having to overtly raise taxes. Inflation is the most universal tax of all.” -Thomas Sowell

]]>
Phantoms reused their sneakiest trick https://resourcekt.co.uk/phantoms-reused-their-sneakiest-trick/ Tue, 14 Jun 2022 01:41:30 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/phantoms-reused-their-sneakiest-trick/

The Young Justice: Phantoms finale sees the HBO Max series re-use Alpha Team’s most devious maneuver not once, but twice to great effect.

The following contains spoilers for the Young Justice: Phantoms finale, “Death and Rebirth,” now streaming on HBO Max.

young justice saw Nightwing students deploy various tactics to help the Justice League keep the world safe. Aqualad, Miss Martian, Superboy and Wally West/Kid Flash were so strong they could have easily gone straight into the League. But Dick Grayson’s team was proud of his brains, not just his brawn.

Their most devious strategy is also the most subtle: fake death. young justice fans will remember how Artemis staged her murder in order to step into the Light as the Tigress. It was effective, but many of her teammates hated the deception as they honestly believed she was dead. In the Young Justice: Ghosts In the end, Alpha Team reused this strategy and proved once again how useful it can be.

RELATED: Young Justice’s Alpha Team Lost a Key Member in the Phantom Zone

The trick was used twice in “Death and Rebirth”, playing a major role in saving the planet from the Zods. The first case involved Nightwing, who appeared dead in the previous episode. Lor-Zod had beaten Dick to ensure that his parents would be freed and could conquer Earth. He had crushed Dick into the ice of the Fortress of Solitude and apparently crushed him.

However, Dick had used a hidden blade to cut off his head (perhaps he is a professional wrestling fan). He also stopped his heartbeat by slowing it down, successfully tricking Lor’s super-hearing. He had learned the latter from Batman, who did the same in Frank Miller’s classic Return of the Dark Knight. In this case, Bruce used a pill to trick Superman into thinking his heart had stopped, but Dick did it naturally in the episode.

RELATED: Young Justice: Phantoms Post-Credits Scene Turned Two DC Heroes Into Villains

When Nightwing fled to find the Bioship destroyed and all of his colleagues in the snow, it was the second time Alpha Team had used the idea of ​​fake death. Miss Martin had created a mental illusion, which she dropped when she saw Nightwing. She confessed that Saturn Girl psychically detected that Ursa was going to attack with her new Emerald Empress powers, so she and Phantom Girl shielded them with this facade.

Their apparent death gave everyone time to recuperate as the heroes gambled on the Zods’ propensity for leaving bodies, assuming their opponents were dead rather than finish the job. This critical oversight made it easy for Alpha Team to use this sleight of hand to regroup and ultimately stop the bad guys in Metropolis. Whereas young justice is now in its fourth season, this plot point was an indication that some older strategies are just as good as the new ones.

All 26 episodes of Young Justice: Phantoms, plus the previous three seasons of Young Justice, are available on HBO Max.

]]>
Should you buy Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management SA (ATH: ATRUST) for its upcoming dividend? https://resourcekt.co.uk/should-you-buy-alpha-trust-mutual-fund-and-alternative-investment-fund-management-sa-ath-atrust-for-its-upcoming-dividend/ Sun, 12 Jun 2022 05:16:55 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/should-you-buy-alpha-trust-mutual-fund-and-alternative-investment-fund-management-sa-ath-atrust-for-its-upcoming-dividend/

Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management SA (ATH:ATRUST) is set to trade ex-dividend in the coming days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day shareholders must be on the books of the company to receive a dividend. It is important to know the ex-dividend date, because any trade in the stock must have settled by the record date. This means that you will need to buy the shares of Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management by June 14 to receive the dividend, which will be paid on June 21.

The company’s next dividend payment will be €0.34 per share, after last year when the company paid a total of €0.50 to shareholders. Based on the value of last year’s payouts, Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management has a rolling yield of 9.9% on the current share price of €5.05. We love to see companies pay out a dividend, but it’s also important to make sure that laying the golden eggs doesn’t kill our golden hen! That’s why we always have to check if the dividend payouts seem sustainable and if the business is growing.

Check out our latest analysis for Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management

If a company pays out more dividends than it has earned, the dividend may become unsustainable – a less than ideal situation. Fortunately, the payout ratio of Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management is modest at just 48% of earnings.

Generally speaking, the lower a company’s payout ratios, the more resilient its dividend tends to be.

Click here to see how much profit Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management has paid out over the past 12 months.

ATSE:ATRUST Historic dividend June 12, 2022

Have earnings and dividends increased?

Companies with consistently rising earnings per share tend to create the best dividend-paying stocks because they generally find it easier to increase dividends per share. If business goes into a recession and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value drop precipitously. It is encouraging to see that Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management has grown its profits rapidly, up 75% per year over the past five years.

Most investors primarily gauge a company’s dividend prospects by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Dividend payouts per share of Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management have declined an average of 13% per year over the past eight years, which is uninspiring. It is unusual to see earnings per share increase at the same time as dividends per share decrease. We’re hoping that’s because the company is reinvesting heavily in its business, but it could also suggest that business is lumpy.

The essential

Are Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management attractive dividend stocks, or better left on the shelf? Typically, companies that grow rapidly and pay out only a small fraction of profits retain profits to reinvest in the business. This is one of the most attractive investment combinations according to this analysis, as it can create substantial value for long-term investors. In summary, Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management look promising as dividend stocks, and we suggest you take a closer look.

Although it is tempting to invest in Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management for dividends only, you should always be aware of the risks involved. To do this, you need to find out about the 3 warning signs we spotted with Alpha Trust Mutual Fund and Alternative Investment Fund Management (1 of which makes us a bit uneasy).

If you are looking for good dividend payers, we recommend by consulting our selection of the best dividend-paying stocks.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

]]>
Khan’s prequel series ‘Ceti Alpha V’ by Nicholas Meyer could become a Star Trek podcast – TrekMovie.com https://resourcekt.co.uk/khans-prequel-series-ceti-alpha-v-by-nicholas-meyer-could-become-a-star-trek-podcast-trekmovie-com/ Fri, 10 Jun 2022 16:39:50 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/khans-prequel-series-ceti-alpha-v-by-nicholas-meyer-could-become-a-star-trek-podcast-trekmovie-com/

The saga of Nicholas Meyer Star Trek II: Wrath of Khan The prequel has been going on for five years since the writer and director first hinted at it in a TrekMovie interview five years ago. His Ceti Alpha V It was revealed that the project was written as a three-part miniseries while he was a consulting producer on the first season of Star Trek: Discovery. It told the story of Khan Noonien-Singh’s stay on the planet Ceti Alpha V following the events of the Star Trek episode “Space Seed”, before star trek 2.

However, the project never got beyond the writing stage, and as recently as April, Meyer was talking about how it lay dormant. Now, it looks like there could finally be some movement and a possible transition of the project to a new medium.

Khancasting with Nick Meyer

As a guest on the latest episode of Front Page: The Writer’s Podcast, Nicholas Meyer was asked about the project. He replied, “It will be a podcast,” and when the host laughed, Meyer revealed he was serious:

He is. I’m not kidding…I’m in the process of getting a deal done to make this a podcast that I’ll write and presumably direct. And if the podcast is a hit, maybe we’ll come back to it on some movie.

Meyer didn’t go into further details, but when asked directly by TrekMovie, he confirmed that the project is currently a possibility. On the page one podcast, Meyer talked about the benefits of audio drama:

I love radio plays…when I was in college, I was putting on a play a week. In the name of radio plays, I believe that all major arts media rely for their success on something they omit. The tables do not move. Music has no intellectual content. Words are just code on a page. In each of these cases, it’s the imaginative contribution of the listener, the reader… When your imagination completes the sounds, which otherwise are only sounds… Only the film has the hideous capacity to do everything for you. We call it eye candy and candy is not good for you. So I look for ways to let things go. And radio is a great way to let things go. The imagination needs no training.

Nicholas Meyer on set with Ricardo Montalban during the filming of Star Trek II: Wrath of Khan

Trek Audio Dramas

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of a Star Trek drama podcast. In his April interview with TrekMovie.com, executive producer Alex Kurtzman revealed that he was developing new Star Trek podcasts. And in February, Simon & Schuster Audio released the audio drama Star Trek: Picard: No Man’s Landwritten by Mike Johnson and picard co-creator Kirsten Beyer and featuring the voices of Michelle Hurd and Jeri Ryan.

Podcasting is a growing business for Hollywood, with a number of studios moving in to create audio drama. Other franchises have dabbled in episodic audio dramas, such as DC with several Batman audio dramas including Batman: The Audio Adventures on HBO Max, which featured TNG’s Brent Spiner as the Joker.

As of now, there has been no official announcement from Paramount regarding this project, so the Ceti Alpha V development saga continues. But we will post any new updates as they come.

Picard audio drama released in February


Find more stories from the Star Trek universe.

]]>
Community Calendar: Alpha Delta Kappa Rummage and Bake Sale, Jay Cooke State Park Events and More – Cloquet Pine Journal https://resourcekt.co.uk/community-calendar-alpha-delta-kappa-rummage-and-bake-sale-jay-cooke-state-park-events-and-more-cloquet-pine-journal/ Wed, 08 Jun 2022 17:05:24 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/community-calendar-alpha-delta-kappa-rummage-and-bake-sale-jay-cooke-state-park-events-and-more-cloquet-pine-journal/

Snack, 3:30-5:30 p.m., Cloquet Public Library. REACH sponsors the weekly event for children. Participants will prepare a snack and chat with others as they eat.

Sale of digs and baked goods Alpha Delta Kappa, 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., 38 Carlton County Road 138, Barnum. Plants and crafts will also be available for purchase. All proceeds will go to the organization’s scholarship and literacy projects.

Japanese drum performance, 10:30-11:30 a.m., Cloquet Public Library. Performance by TaikoArts Midwest.

Why are the rocks tilted? Geological Walk, 10:30-11am, Jay Cooke State Park, meet at the River Inn Interpretive Center. The slanting rocks by the river have caused people to marvel and wonder for centuries. Join park staff for a short geological walk by the river and learn about the powerful forces of the past that shaped the tilting rocks. The boardwalk is ¼ mile on a flat, grassy surface. Register by calling 218-673-7006 or emailing carly.hawkinson@state.mn.us.

Ping-pong and air hockey for teens4-5 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Campfire Program – MN Black Bears, 8-8:30pm, Jay Cooke State Park, meet at the amphitheater behind the park office. Participants can learn about the world of the Minnesota black bear and how to make their outdoor adventures more bearable. The program will have benches, but those who participate can bring a blanket or camping chair for added comfort or social distancing.

Sale of digs and baked goods Alpha Delta Kappa, 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., 38 Carlton County Road 138, Barnum. Plants and crafts will also be available for purchase. All proceeds will go to the organization’s scholarship and literacy projects.

Carlton County Farmers Market, 9 a.m. to noon, in front of Premiere Theaters, 904 Minnesota 33, Cloquet.

Walk in lady’s slippers, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Jay Cooke State Park, meet at the River Inn Interpretive Center. This moderate 2 mile hike on the St. Louis River will lead to a scenic hill of yellow slipper flowers.

Discovery table – Geological rocks! 1-3 p.m., Jay Cooke State Park, located in front of the River Inn Interpretive Center. Those interested can stop by anytime during the two-hour window to hear mini-talks on the rocks in the park. Participants will discover the stories left in stone that trace the natural and historical events that have happened here.

Birdsong Walk, 8-9:30am, Jay Cooke State Park, meet at the Visitor Center parking lot. Join the naturalist to see who flies through the park. The walk will be along a 1 ½ mile paved trail and is ideal for novice bird watchers. Binoculars will be provided.

Why are the rocks tilted? Geological Walk, 1-1:30 PM, Jay Cooke State Park, meet at the River Inn Interpretive Center. The slanting rocks by the river have caused people to marvel and wonder for centuries. Join park staff for a short geological walk by the river and learn about the powerful forces of the past that shaped the tilting rocks. The boardwalk is ¼ mile on a flat, grassy surface. Register by calling 218-673-7006 or emailing carly.hawkinson@state.mn.us.

Children And Family Yoga, 10 a.m.-10:45 a.m., Cloquet Public Library.

reading for teenagers, 4 p.m., Cloquet Public Library. The teenage librarian in the library will read aloud from chapters of a current book. Snacks are provided.

story time, 10am-10:30am, Cloquet Public Library, Join Ms. Keiko as she sings songs and reads a story. The program is designed for children 0-5 years old and their caregivers.

young elders, noon, Cromwell Park Pavilion. All local seniors are welcome.

story time, 10am-10:30am, Cloquet Public Library, Join Ms. Keiko as she sings songs and reads a story. The program is designed for children 0-5 years old and their caregivers.

Senior day at Cloquet, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m., Veterans Park in Cloquet. The event will include music, food, refreshments and more.

History Walk, 9 a.m. to 7 p.m., Veterans Memorial Park.

Snack, 3:30-5:30 p.m., Cloquet Public Library. REACH sponsors the weekly event for children. Participants will prepare a snack and chat with others as they eat.

Cloquet American Legion Auxiliary Burger and Coney Fundraiser, 4 to 7 p.m., Cloquet VFW, 210 Arch Street. The fundraiser will take place in the Cloquet VFW parking lot. The cost is $10 for a burger with fries, $9 for a burger only, $7 for a coney with fries and $4 for fries. Dessert is included with the purchase of a burger or coney. All proceeds will support the organization’s local veterans programs.

What’s under your feet? 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. The Cloquet Public Library organizes a geological field trip with Dr. Alan Chapman at the Thomson Dam.

Ping-pong and air hockey for teens4-5 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Carlton County Farmers Market, 9 a.m. to noon, in front of Premiere Theaters, 904 Minnesota 33, Cloquet.

Cloquet public library closed.

Make Waves Vacation Bible School, 9 a.m. to noon, Esko Aspostolic Lutheran Church, 25 Church Road, Esko. Children from 3 to 5 years old are invited to attend from June 20 to 22. Please call 218-879-3882 with any questions.

Make Waves Vacation Bible School, 9 a.m. to noon, Esko Aspostolic Lutheran Church, 25 Church Road, Esko. Children from 3 to 5 years old are invited to attend from June 20 to 22. Please call 218-879-3882 with any questions.

story time, 10am-10:30am, Cloquet Public Library, Join Ms. Keiko as she sings songs and reads a story. The program is designed for children 0-5 years old and their caregivers.

Haitian Dance Afoutayi, 2-3 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Book club between the lines, 3:30 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Carlton Farmers Market, 4-6 p.m., McFarland Park, Minnesota 210 and Grand Street, Carlton.

Make Waves Vacation Bible School, 9 a.m. to noon, Esko Aspostolic Lutheran Church, 25 Church Road, Esko. Children from 3 to 5 years old are invited to attend from June 20 to 22. Please call 218-879-3882 with any questions.

story time, 10am-10:30am, Cloquet Public Library, Join Ms. Keiko as she sings songs and reads a story. The program is designed for children 0-5 years old and their caregivers.

Family game night, 5-7 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Library Arts and Crafts Fair, 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., Cloquet Public Library.

Carlton County Farmers Market, 9 a.m. to noon, in front of Premiere Theaters, 904 Minnesota 33, Cloquet.

Carlton VFW Golf Course, Pine Hill Golf Course, Carlton. The 21st Annual Golf Tournament will raise money for the Postal Relief Fund, with all proceeds going to veterans, veteran families and community members in need.

Al-Anon Cloquet, Tuesdays and Fridays, 10-11 a.m., 103 10th St., Cloquet. Meetings closed. The only requirement for membership is that a friend or relative has a drinking problem. Call 218-879-9884.

Clothing Depot, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., R-Tech Insulation Building, Minnesota Highway 73, Cromwell. No large loads will be accepted until further notice as the warehouse is full.

cribbage, Tuesday, 6 p.m., Villa Vista.

Anonymous Players, Monday, 7 p.m.; Tuesday, 5 p.m.; Lutheran Church of Our Savior, 615 12th Avenue, Cloquet. Use the parking lot entrance. For more information, call 855-222-5542.

Get to know your neighbor, Wednesdays, 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., Perch Lake Town Hall, 2779 Big Lake Road, Cloquet. Residents and friends of Perch Lake Township can stop by Perch Lake Town Hall on Wednesdays for coffee, refreshments, maps, cribbage, a book exchange and more.

Bereavement support group meets the second and fourth Tuesdays of each month from 7-8:30 p.m. in the Pine Room at Community Memorial Hospital. This is a general bereavement support group best suited for adults. The group will be moderated by Peggy Maki and questions can be directed to 218-879-4976.

Narcotics Anonymous, Wednesdays from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., Fridays from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m., Alano Club, Cloquet. Call 877-767-7676 or visit naminnesota.org.

Riverview Toastmasters, Tuesdays, 7am-8am, Cloquet. For more information, visit 5429.toastmastersclubs.org.

Elders Wright, Wednesdays, 1 p.m., senior building.

]]>
Alex Roepers Atlantic Investment Management Portfolio Tracker – Q1 2022 Update https://resourcekt.co.uk/alex-roepers-atlantic-investment-management-portfolio-tracker-q1-2022-update/ Tue, 07 Jun 2022 00:56:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/alex-roepers-atlantic-investment-management-portfolio-tracker-q1-2022-update/

metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images

This article is part of a series that provides ongoing analysis of changes to Alex Roepers’ 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Roepers Regulatory Form 13F filed on 05/16/2022. Please visit our Alex Roepers Atlantic Investment Management portfolio monitoring article to get an idea of ​​his investment philosophy and our Last update for fund movements during the fourth quarter of 2021.

This quarter, the value of Roepers’ 13F portfolio has grown from about $358 million to about $310 million. The number of holdings has increased from 10 to 11. The top three holdings represent approximately 46%, while the top five represent approximately 70% of 13F assets: Westrock Company, Huntsman Corp, Eastman Chemical, Univar Solutions and Timken.

Atlantic Investment Management’s annualized returns from the flagship fund’s inception in 1992 through 2017 have been impressive at around 16%. For the past four years, the fund has underperformed the S&P 500 Index. For more on activist investing, see Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Opponents Fight for Control of Losing Companies.

New issues:

Ralph Lauren (RL): RL is an 8.23% portfolio stake established this quarter at prices between ~$101 and ~$134 and the stock is currently trading at ~$106.

Sale of interests:

None.

Bet increase:

Timken Corporation (TKR): TKR represents approximately 10% of the portfolio position established last quarter at prices between ~$64 and ~$77. This quarter saw a one-third increase in stake at prices between ~$59 and ~$75. The stock is currently trading at $63.14.

Goodyear (GT) tires and rubber: GT represents approximately 9% of the portfolio position purchased in Q3 2021 at prices between ~$14.50 and ~$18.75. The last quarter saw a reduction of around 5%, while this quarter there was an increase of around 13%. The stock is currently trading at $13.69.

Lear Corp. (LEA): LEA represents approximately 8% of the portfolio position established in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$113 and ~$165 and the stock is currently trading at ~$141. There was a ~12% cut last quarter at prices between ~$146 and ~$188, while this quarter there was a slight increase of ~5%.

The bet decreases:

WestRock Co. (WRK): WRK is currently the largest 13F position with 14.55% of the portfolio. It was built in Q4 2019 at prices between $33.50 and $43.25. The first quarter of 2020 saw a sale of around 17% while the following quarter saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $24 and $34. The fourth quarter of 2020 saw a reduction of around 10% while the following quarter there was an increase in participation of around 20% at prices between ~$41 and ~$54. The two quarters through Q3 2021 had seen around 22% selling at prices between ~$48 and ~$62. The stock is currently at $48.59. The last quarter saw an increase in participation of around 15%, while this quarter there was a similar reduction.

Huntersman Corp. (HUN): HUN is currently the second largest position with 13.46% of the portfolio. It was established in the first quarter of 2021 at prices between ~$25 and ~$29.50. Stake more than doubled in the following quarter at prices between ~$25 and ~$31.60. This quarter saw a reduction of around 36% at prices between ~$35 and ~$41. The stock is currently trading at $36.21.

Note: Huntsman is a frequently traded pick in the wallet. Details of the latest round trip follow: it was about 5% of the portfolio stake established in the second quarter of 2017 at prices between $23 and $27. The five quarters up to the second quarter of 2019 had seen a combined sale of around 50% at prices between $17.35 and $35.30. This was followed by another two-thirds selling the following quarter at prices between $18.25 and $23.50. The fourth quarter of 2019 saw the position nearly eliminated at prices between $21.50 and $25. The remaining stake was sold in the first half of 2020.

Eastman Chemical (EMN): EMN was a large holding established in Q4 2015 at prices between $65 and $74. The position wavered. Recent activity follows: H2 2019 and Q1 2020 had seen the position sold at prices between $38 and $83.90. It was rebuilt last quarter at prices between ~$101 and ~$121. There were ~25% sales this quarter at prices between ~$105 and ~$128. The stock is now at ~$111 and the stake is at 11.36% of the portfolio.

Univar Solutions (UNVR): The large (top five) ~11% portfolio stake in UNVR was established in Q2 2020 at prices between $9.60 and $18.15. The two quarters through Q1 2021 had seen a one-third increase in stake at prices between ~$16.50 and ~$22. This quarter saw around 45% selling at prices between ~$26.50 and ~$34. The stock is currently trading at $32.21.

Avnet, Inc. (AVT): AVT’s large ~10% stake was purchased in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$24.50 and ~$35.25. There was a roughly 30% stake increase in the next quarter at prices between ~$35 and ~$41.50. The last quarter saw an increase in participation of around 11%, while this quarter there was a reduction of around 17%. The stock is now at $48.96.

Nomadic Foods (NOMD): NOMD is a 1.31% position established over the past two quarters at prices between ~$24 and ~$29 and the stock is currently trading well below that range at $20.73. There was a roughly 25% reduction this quarter at prices between ~$20 and ~$27.

Note: Nomad Foods is back in the portfolio after a quarter of a gap. A similar stake was established in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$22.60 and ~$26.15. It was phased out the following quarter at prices between ~$27.50 and ~$31.50.

Maintained stable:

OI glass (OI), formerly Owens Illinois: OI is a very long-term issue. In 2008 the position was tiny and was built to 11.2 million shares in 2012 through regular buying. Recent activity follows: Q4 2020 saw around 45% selling at prices between ~$9.40 and ~$13. The two quarters up to Q2 2021 had seen around 75% more sold at prices between $11.50 and $19.30. The stock is currently trading at $16.68 and the stake is now low at 2.79% of the portfolio.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Roepers’ 13F stock holdings in Q1 2022:

Alex Roepers - Atlantic Investment Management Q1 2022 13F Report Q/Q Comparison

Alex Roepers – Atlantic Investment Management Q1 2022 13F Report Q/Q Comparison (John Vincent (author))

]]>
Dream Finders Homes: The Dream Sounds Cool (NYSE: DFH) https://resourcekt.co.uk/dream-finders-homes-the-dream-sounds-cool-nyse-dfh/ Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:42:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/dream-finders-homes-the-dream-sounds-cool-nyse-dfh/

Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesNews

These are far from dream times for homebuilders like Home Dream Finders (NASDAQ: DFH) as a cocktail of a tight labor market, huge (material) inflation and rapidly rising interest rates (and therefore mortgage rates) create severe headwinds.

In October last year I concluded that I was finding value in homes with Dream Finders as its shares had seen a big reversal since the summer when earnings power was still very strong and the crisis Ukrainian was not yet on the radar. The cyclicality of the real estate market prevented me from getting involved in size at the same time.

old plug

Founded in 2009, Dream Finders has grown rapidly as a homebuilder that focuses on regional markets with growing populations, particularly the construction of single-family and entry-level homes. Besides construction, the company offers adjacent services such as insurance and mortgage, operating with an asset light model focusing on the just-in-time purchase of land plots.

The shares went public at $13 in January 2021, but fell to $22 on the first day of trading, giving the company a stock valuation of $2.1 billion. Such a valuation was applied to a company with sales of $744 million, on which it recorded profits of $39 million, all based on some 2,000 units sold at an average price of over 360. $000 that year.

Revenues rose sharply to over $1 billion in 2020, but earning capacity was relatively limited, translating into high multiples at the time of the offering, certainly as shares hit a high of $34 in June . This stock momentum was boosted by corporate momentum, as a $2 billion revenue rate could be in the works, and with margins of 6-8%, this could translate to a capacity beneficiary of $1.50 per share.

Over the summer, the company announced a big deal with the purchase of nearly half a billion from McGuyer Homebuilders in a deal adding nearly a billion in sales. The big deal, complicated financing and headwinds in the economy made investors a bit cautious. With shares down to $16 and earning power still pegged at $1.50 per share, I noted the attractiveness of valuation as I initiated a small position in the fall of last year, but uncertainty about trading strategy and the health of the real estate market prevented me from taking a sizeable position.

And now?

Relatively few news events have occurred since the start of the year, other than the regularly scheduled quarterly earnings release. The shares have been trading in the $15-$23 range since then, currently trading at $17 and changing.

The McGuyer deal was completed in the fourth quarter. This was the driving force behind an 84% increase in sales to $850 million, the fourth quarter alone, when the backlog reached $2.9 billion. Pretax profit rose 86% to $71 million, which translates to decent margins, but that’s relatively easy with average selling prices up 28% from a year earlier. Net income of $57 million was reduced to earnings of $0.55 per share, implying that the run rate of $1.50 per share might be too conservative, but the question is whether this operational dynamic could be maintained.

Some consideration should be given to leverage as the company operates with half a billion in net debt, looking at cash minus construction debt, but this definition of leverage excludes over 150 million dollars of preferred mezzanine equity and VIE outstandings, resulting in somewhat higher leverage. ratios by this calculation.

In May, the publication of first quarter results showed contradictory trends. Revenue increased 94% to $662m, a sequential decline as it is of course a milder seasonal quarter, while backlog increased again dramatically to $3.4bn of dollars. Pre-tax profit was $63 million, with margins of 10%. This coincided with a 40% increase in house prices over the year.

Earnings were $0.42 per share in this milder seasonal quarter as net debt climbed to $670 million based on the simplified calculation described above, much of the cash flow necessary to go to inventory, land, but especially for ongoing construction.

Become cautious

Having held a very small position since the beginning of the year, I am happy to come out with a profit in dollars. Although this profit is very small, it actually marks an underperformance compared to the market, because my biggest concern is that the outside world has deteriorated a lot in terms of rising rates and rising construction costs, casting a real shadow over the medium-term outlook. in my eyes. I’m happy to come out of the stock in this situation with broadly balanced investment results.

]]>
Sabine Royalty Trust – A Top Stock to Own https://resourcekt.co.uk/sabine-royalty-trust-a-top-stock-to-own/ Fri, 03 Jun 2022 01:02:00 +0000 https://resourcekt.co.uk/sabine-royalty-trust-a-top-stock-to-own/

This article was written by

Jim Van Meerten writes about financial topics here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in accounting and business administration from Berry College; a JD from Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and completed post-baccalaureate and graduate courses in business administration, quantitative mathematics, and education at Florida Atlantic University, Georgia State University, and the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. In the past, he has been an accountant, lawyer, adjunct professor in business law, accounting and internal audit, financial advisor, senior supervisor and compliance officer. He has also passed the Georgia CPA exam, Certified Internal Auditor exam, and FINRA Series 7, 24, and 9/10 exams. , an elite honor chosen by the editors of Marketocracy as one of the top 100 portfolio managers from the over 100,000 portfolios they review. He would love to hear your feedback at JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I/we do not have a stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but I can initiate a beneficial long position through a stock purchase or purchase of call options or similar derivatives in SBR within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I do not receive any compensation for this. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Today’s bar chart highlights stocks that are experiencing exceptional appreciation in current prices. They are not intended to be buy recommendations as these stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. If you decide to add any of these stocks to your investment portfolio, it is strongly suggested that you follow a predetermined diversification and moving stop loss discipline that matches your personal investment risk tolerance and reassess your stop loss at least once a week.

]]>