Alpha – Resource KT Mon, 21 Nov 2022 10:14:13 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Alpha – Resource KT 32 32 Competitive and qualitative landscape of the alpha emitter market Mon, 21 Nov 2022 10:07:00 +0000

Global Alpha Emitter Market

Global Alpha Emitter Market development strategy before and after COVID-19, by analysis of company strategy, landscape, type, application, and Top 20 Countries, covers and analyzes the potential of the global Alpha Emitter industry, providing statistical information on market dynamics, growth factors, major challenges, PEST analysis and market entry strategy Analysis, opportunities and forecast. The biggest strength of the report is to provide companies in the sector with a strategic analysis of the impact of COVID-19.

The Alpha Emitter research report will also study the market share of major stakeholders in their global capacity as processors globally. This qualitative and quantitative analysis will include key product offerings, key differentiators, revenue share, market size, market status, and strategies. The report will also cover major global agreements, collaborations and partnerships that will soon change the market dynamics globally.

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Market segmentation :
Global Alpha Emitters Market: Major Players
IBA Radiopharma Solutions
RadioMedix inc.
Alpha Tau Medical Ltd
Fusion Pharmaceuticals
Bayer AG
Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Actinium Pharmaceutical Inc.

Global Alpha Emitter Market: Types
Terbium (Tb-149)
Astatine (At-211)
Bismuth (Bi-212)
Actinium (Ac-225)
Radium (Ra-223)
Lead (Pb-212)
Bismuth (Bi-213)

Global Alpha Emitter Market: Applications
Pancreatic cancer
Ovarian cancer
Bone metastasis
Endocrine tumors

Global Alpha Emitters Market: Regional Analysis
The whole regional segmentation has been studied based on recent and future trends, and the market is forecast through the forecast period. The countries covered in the regional analysis of the Global Alpha Emitters Market report are US, Canada & Mexico North America, Germany, France, UK, Russia, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium and the rest of Europe in Europe, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, China, Japan, India, South Korea , Rest of Asia Pacific (APAC) in Asia Pacific (APAC), Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Egypt, Israel, Rest of Middle East and Africa (MEA) as part of the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and Argentina, Brazil and the rest of South America as part of South America.

A few TOC points:
Chapter 1 is the basis of the entire report. In this chapter, we define the market concept and scope of Alpha Emitter market including product classification, application areas and whole area covered in the report.

Chapter 2 is the central idea of ​​the whole report. In this chapter, we provide a detailed introduction to our research methods and data sources.

Chapter 3 focuses on the analysis of the current competitive situation in Alpha Emitters market, and provides background information, market data, product overviews etc. on the main companies in the sector. At the same time, Chapter 3 includes the highlighted analysis – Strategies for the business to deal with the impact of COVID-19.

Chapter 4 provides breakdown data of different product types, along with market forecast. Different application areas have different product usage and development prospects.

Chapter 5 provides subdivision data of different application areas and market forecast.

Chapter 6 includes detailed data of major regions of the world, including detailed data of major regions of the world. North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, South America, Middle East and Africa.

Chapter 7 to 26 focus on the regional market. We have selected the most representative 20 countries from 197 countries in the world and made a detailed analysis and overview of the market development of these countries.

Chapter 27 focuses on the qualitative analysis of the market, providing analysis of market drivers, market development restraints, PEST analysis, industry trends under COVID-19, analysis of the market entry strategy, etc.

Direct Purchase Alpha Emitters Market Research Report:

Reasons to buy this report
• Qualitative and quantitative market analysis based on segmentation involving both economic and non-economic factors
• Provision of market value data (USD Billion) for each segment and sub-segment
• Indicates region and segment expected to grow fastest and dominate the market
• Geographical analysis highlighting the consumption of the product/service in the region and indicating the factors that affect the market in each region
• Competitive landscape that incorporates market ranking of major players, as well as new service/product launches, partnerships, business expansions, and acquisitions over the past five years of profiled companies
• Comprehensive company profiles including company overview, company information, product benchmarking and SWOT analysis for key market players
• Current and future industry market outlook with respect to recent developments that involve opportunities and growth drivers along with challenges and restraints of emerging and developed regions
• Includes in-depth market analysis from various perspectives through Porter’s Five Forces analysis
• Provides market insight through the value chain
• Market dynamics scenario, along with market growth opportunities in the coming years

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Our strategic market analysis and ability to understand the deep cultural, conceptual and social aspects of various entangled markets has helped us stand out in the industry. Analytics Market Research is a forerunner in helping many businesses; both regionally and internationally to successfully achieve their business goals based on our in-depth market analysis. Moreover, we are also capable of designing market strategies that ensure guaranteed customer bases for our clients.

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Apple: The industry giant is not worth its price (NASDAQ: AAPL) Wed, 16 Nov 2022 21:42:00 +0000



Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is an American multinational technology company best known for its iOS smartphones and macOS personal computers in the technology hardware, storage and peripherals industry. As shown in the chart below, AAPL stock has slightly outperformed the broader market year-to-date, losing up to 15.54% of its market value during a period when the SPY also fell 16.42%. Looking at the total return of the past 10 years, the stock has also returned significantly more to shareholders than SPY, with a staggering return of around 800% compared to SPY’s return of around 250%.

Data by YCharts
Data by YCharts

Despite this historic outperformance, I’m still not inclined to recommend a “BUY” for this stock due to Apple’s lagging financials, inadequate dividends, low intrinsic valuations on conservative measures, and more. Let’s dive into the main drivers of my assumptions on this bearish outlook.

Company activity

Apple, as a very mature company, has historically shown slow growth in financial metrics relative to the broader information technology sector, which has seen substantial growth on the heels of strong consumer demand. I’ve compiled the company’s historical revenue, EBITDA and normalized diluted EPS below. As a result, we can see that these metrics have been relatively mixed over the years, as evidenced by the 5-year average growth rate of around 8% in forecast revenue and forecast EBITDA. Forward-looking EPS growth has fared better, with a 5-year average growth rate nearly doubling to around 16%, but this is partly attributable to buyback programs and earnings inflation resulting from a reduction of the number of shares.

Such modest growth contributed to even apparent negative sentiment in Seeking Alpha’s D+ rankings on stock growth. Below are images with its difference in the medians of the information technology sector in terms of revenue, EBITDA and normalized diluted EPS.

Data by YCharts
Earnings screenshot

Looking for Alpha

Data by YCharts
EBITDA growth screenshot

Looking for Alpha

Data by YCharts
Screenshot of EPS Diluted Growth

Looking for Alpha

Finally, there was significant insider selling activity. Over the past 4 years, insiders haven’t bought any of his shares and instead sold $810.145 million. I find this very concerning and it may highlight the lack of insider confidence within the company.

MarketBeat screenshot of Apple insider activity

market beat

Inadequate dividends

In bear market conditions, I consider dividends to be the most important financial metric to watch because they can provide stable returns to investors even during market declines. Looking at Apple’s dividend history over the past 10 years, it hasn’t been great, to say the least. I analyzed the dividend on a more specific yield basis, and we can say that yields have fallen well below the yields offered by other technology companies in the sector.

For one thing, Apple’s forward dividend yield of 0.66% relative to its industry puts the company below the top 75% performer (second visual below). Not only is Apple’s futures yield significantly lower than SPY’s dividend yield of 1.55% year-to-date, but the benchmark treasury yield also offers a better yield than Apple’s. . For this reason, I don’t see this stock as being capable of delivering the baseline returns that are particularly important for navigating today’s uncertain market conditions.

Screenshot of source's Apples dividends

Apple historical performance (WallStreet Zen)

MarketBeat screenshot of listed companies


MacroTrends screenshot

Shaded regions indicate recessions (MacroTrends)

Inventory valuation

Since Apple is a very mature company and its free cash flow (FCF) is growing at a steady rate, I decided to price the stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method with a more conservative and fair approach to yield more accurate result. I based my two models on the 5- and 10-year average decline in its outstanding shares with an adjustment for the historical decline in the number of shares to account for Apple’s historically large buyback programs. This resulted in 15,396.80 and 15,273.60 million shares, respectively, from a linear adjustment based on the historical Apple share count chart below. Therefore, the number of shares considered in this analysis is lower than the current outstanding diluted shares of the company’s shares.

Screenshot of outstanding Apple shares

Apple shares outstanding (MacroTrends)

Then I based these DCF models on Apple’s most recent leveraged FCF: $90.220 million. I then assumed a moderate FCF growth rate of 9.37% derived from the 10-year CAGR from 2012 to 2022 with a terminal growth rate of 2% to mimic constant growth with inflation. Finally, I used the highest discount rate using WACC to get 8%, again for a more conservative result. But, all of these assumptions together have resulted in Apple being expected to suffer a minimum decline of 24.7% from its last stock price. Although not shown below, we can assume that even using optimistic assumptions (such as a lower WACC and higher terminal growth rate), the results of the DCF models would have the stock price close to 0% upside – or, its current price.

My DCF model

5-year shares (Google Sheets)

My DCF model

10 year stocks (Google Sheets)

Possible tailwinds to growth

From what I can see, the main catalysts for AAPL stock are new product launches under Tim Cook and the tailwind from the stock’s strong representation in various benchmarks. On the one hand, Apple, under the leadership of Tim Cook, launched new products, shifting Apple’s hardware-based business model to a subscriber-based business model, and more. More information can be found in articles like this one on Tim Cook’s hits.

Additionally, Apple is well represented in various stock indices and exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”). This should naturally boost demand for AAPL shares as passive investments will continue to buy AAPL to maintain their target allocations. The passive style of investing is expected to be favored by investors by 2026 and will occur sooner if the bear market continues. Overweighting or over-indexing a stock is the idea that relates to how investors’ investment allocation is allocated to ETFs holding a percentage of the stock in the market, and how a high weighting for a stock in these ETFs would equate to a higher proportion of each dollar invested in the ETF in a particular security.

Specifically, as investors invest in ETFs, their investment is allocated with increasing representation to the various sectors and companies that make up those weightings in the portfolio. And as a company becomes more represented in an industry or in the market, the company would be bought up more accordingly based on its weightings. In a report by Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), we can see that Apple accounts for 13% of the NASDAQ tracking ETF (which is by far the largest ETF weighting) and also holds the largest stake in the S&P 500 by 6.55%. Apple should continue to benefit from this structure, with investors investing passively in ETFs.

Screenshot of the Invesco QQQ Trust report

Invesco QQQ Trust

Screenshot of the Invesco QQQ Trust report

Invesco QQQ Trust Report

Screenshot of weightings


Comparisons with competitors

The final part of my thesis is based on Apple’s competitive positioning and expensive valuation metrics relative to its peers. To visualize this, I’ve created a simple data table below with data from Yahoo Finance to compare Apple’s ranking against industry giants like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META) and other competing companies. in the main product segments.

We can see that from this chart, Apple has a higher P/S and P/E valuation than most of its peers, with only Microsoft (one of the top ranked software stocks) having a more expensive valuation. These results show me that Apple commands a premium and costs more than its high-quality peers, and some of its peers may be a better value proposition at current valuation levels.





















Intel (INTC)




Samsung (SSNNF, SSNLF)








Final Thoughts

In closing, I don’t believe AAPL stock is an optimal investment right now. Even though Apple is still an industry giant benefiting from Tim Cook’s passive investing and strategic shifts so far, financial stocks and dividends have risen at rates below industry averages, causing negative investor sentiment. This is even reflected in the fact that insiders have continuously sold a total of $810.145 million over the past 4 years. My two discounted cash flow models based on historical and conservative estimates in two different models calculating shares outstanding resulted in a 24.7% decline from current levels, showing that the stock is overvalued relative to my estimate. Apple’s valuation is also more expensive than its industry giant peers.

Following Apple’s first quarter 2023 earnings announcements or when the macroeconomic environment improves, I will reevaluate my thesis. For now, however, for all the reasons discussed above and more, I recommend a “SELL” on AAPL stock.

Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these actions.

Deceive Inc Closed Alpha announced for this week Mon, 07 Nov 2022 14:54:22 +0000

Sweet Bandits and Tripwire have announced a Deceive Inc closed alpha. The devious multiplayer spy sim will be available to a select group of participants from the end of this week, and will give you a few days to familiarize yourself with its controls and world if you are selected to participate.

According to a press release, the Deceive Inc The Closed Alpha will begin this Friday, November 11 at 2:00 p.m. EST and will run until Sunday, November 13 at 8:00 p.m. EST. The closed alpha will only be available on PC platforms, so if you were hoping to try Deceive Inc on consoles you’re out of luck, unfortunately.

If you want to join the Deceive Inc closed alpha, you’ll need to keep an eye out for “partnership giveaways” on Alienware Arena, SteelSeries, and MMOBomb. The Sweet Bandits also say you should keep an eye on their social media, especially Twitter and Facebook, for a chance to grab additional codes or get additional game news.

It could be you if you manage to get into the Deceive Inc closed alpha.

In addition to the closed alpha announcement, Tripwire Presents also released a fun new dev diary that features members of the development team. The video portrays Sweet Bandits as a tight-knit unit with lots of fun dynamics between them, so check it out if you’re interested in a behind-the-scenes look at their process. We found them to be quite pleasant when we chatted with them, so I hope you will too.

Deceive Inc is an upcoming multiplayer FPS based on subterfuge and espionage. If you can imagine an entire game where you play as the spy of Team Fortress 2, you’re not a million miles away. You will need to disguise yourself, use a variety of gadgets and tools, and eliminate your competition in order to secure your objective and emerge victorious.

At present, Deceive Inc doesn’t have a release date, but given that a closed alpha is coming this week, hopefully we’re not too far from an announcement on that front. When it launches, it will be on PC via Steam and the Epic Games Store, as well as PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.

7 Days To Die Alpha 21: Release date, roadmap update and what to expect Sat, 05 Nov 2022 00:03:55 +0000

Posted: November 4, 2022, 11:56 PM

Here’s everything we need to know about the 7 Days To Die Alpha 21 release date and roadmap.

With 7 Days To Die currently in its Alpha 20 release, many fans are speculating on when they will receive the highly anticipated Alpha 21 release of the zombie survival sandbox video game and what to expect from it. If you’re in the same boat then you’re not alone, and luckily we’ve got some answers for you below.

We’ll go over everything you need to know about the Alpha 21 version of 7 Days To Die, including its release date, what to expect in terms of newly added features, and more. So let’s dive into it.

7 Days to Die Alpha 21 Release Date

As it stands, we don’t have an official release date for the Alpha 21 version of 7 Days To Die, and according to the official Alpha 21 developer diary, the game has been tagged with a release date that reads “Done When It’s Done”. But even with an uncertain release date for the next version, we can speculate on when it will drop.

7 Days To Die Alpha 21 Expected 2023 Release Date
We expect 7 Days To Die Alpha 21 to release in 2023. (Picture: The Fun Pimps)

The game will usually receive one major update per year from the developer. While there are undoubtedly several smaller experimental updates throughout the year, the game usually releases a new version once a year. Given that the last Alpha 20 was released in December 2021, Alpha 21 will likely arrive in early to mid-2023.

What to expect from 7 Days to Die Alpha 21

According to the official Alpha 21 developer diary, the new release will come with a slew of new content updates, fixes, and more. Below is a full list of everything expected to be released in Alpha 21.

  • New places of interest
  • New decorations
    • Cars, trucks, tractors
    • Furniture and lots of new items
  • Additional advanced world generation options
    • Biome percentage sliders (included in Alpha 20.6)
  • Learn by reading the system
    • 23 new skills to rule the crafting system
    • 23 new magazines added to loot
    • Perks no longer unlock recipes or govern crafting at all
    • The only schematics that still unlock recipes are mod attachments.
    • Crafting skill is increased by finding and reading magazines
    • Skill boosts unlock recipes at certain times and increase the quality of crafting quality items
    • Each tech level has a distinct range in the skill spectrum, so working through primitive tech, then iron tech, then steel tech and being able to craft a bluestone ax doesn’t mean more than you can automatically also craft blue iron axe. .
    • Some skills have 100 levels, but others have less depending on the number of unlocks for recipes and quality levels.
    • A new skills page showing your progress has been added to the player interface
    • Skill magazines can be found, purchased, and/or received as quest rewards. The subject of the magazine matches where you expect to find it in the world.
    • Perks slightly affect the likelihood of finding similarly themed magazines and coins for these recipes. Perk in shotguns and you’ll notice more shotgun magazines and shotgun parts appearing in the world. It’s not a significant bonus but it saves the player from getting tricked.
    • As you max out a skill, that slight bonus to the probability granted by perks to find the magazine that matches that skill decreases. The magazine will still appear randomly in loot but will no longer have a boost. The increase in the probability of finding matching parts will remain.
  • Interactive Environmental Hazards
  • Doors
    • Double doors
    • Partially damaged doors with large holes can be fired/melee to damage enemies on the other side
  • water simulator
    • All new water coding – water is no longer a block but a water voxel
    • Water voxels flow into neighboring voxels that are marked to allow it.
    • Water can be in the same space as a block
    • Water does not continuously flow or fall like a river or waterfall
    • Improved player movement in water
7 Days To Die Alpha 21 Features and Updates
Brand new updates and features such as armor sets will be added in the 7 Days To Die Alpha 21 release. (Picture: The Funny Pimps)
  • Armor
    • New iron armor
    • New Commando military armor
    • More details to come.
  • Drinking water rebalancing
    • Murky water is just water found in loot
    • Empty Glass Bottles have been removed from the game to match all other containers in the game.
    • A dew collector workstation added
    • Players can drink directly from water sources with an empty hand by pressing “e”
    • The pot is now needed to boil cloudy water
    • Glue manufacturing has been taken into consideration
  • spears
    • Spear damage increased
    • A spear power attack is a thrust instead of a throw
    • Throwing attack for spears removed
  • Block reset option
    • The default is disabled
    • Options for days up to 70 days
    • The block resets to its pre-generated state if no player has entered the block after the selected number of days.
    • An active LCB or bedroll will prevent a block from resetting.

7 Days to Die Alpha 21 Rumors

According to a recent interview with the developers of 7 Days To Die, we got a glimpse of what we can expect from the Alpha 21 version of the game. During the interview, it was stated that the development team was working to “redoing old systems that were placeholders or very old and refining existing systems as well as working on new systems, but we’re moving more towards polish and refinement”.

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They also go on to mention that there are three key new features they want to add in the new version, such as a change they want to implement with how bandits appear in-game and their AI, but to From now on the details are kept secret. For now, the developers have said they want to keep the big reveal of everything as exactly that, a big reveal, and don’t want to spoil anything until Alpha 21 is released.

Interestingly though, it was mentioned that some features are in development but might not be ready for Alpha 21, so they will be considered for the Alpha 22 release instead. This gives us a lot of hope for releasing more content to come even after the Alpha 21 release.

To learn more about the latest releases, check out our section dedicated to the latest video game releases, guides, features, and more.

Image courtesy of The Fun Pimps

Written by Shane Moosa

Shane is a full-time writer at GINX Esports TV. Beyond that, he’s an avid gamer and tech nerd with a passion for writing. Although he loves games with deep lore, he plays most games, ranging from RPGs and first-person shooters to platformers. Oh, and (noise alert) he’s a drummer in his spare time. You can reach him at [email protected] or on Twitter at @shane_xiii

NeoGames: New contracts could drive up the price (NASDAQ: NGMS) Wed, 02 Nov 2022 14:36:55 +0000

traveler1116/E+ via Getty Images

NeoGames S.A. (NASDAQ: NGMS) is targeting a massive market of nearly $180 billion with impressive growth. The company also signs long-term contracts that include recurring revenue, and the business model seems quite scalable. In my opinion, the future free cash flow would justify a valuation which seems richer than the current market value. Yes, there are risks associated with customer concentration, but I don’t see them as worrisome.

NeoGames: large TAM and scalability

NeoGames is a global leader in iLottery solutions and services. The company intends to be a long-term partner of national and state-regulated lottery providers.

With businesses in select states of the United States, NeoGames’ areas of business do not just include iLotteries. The company also intends to develop successful new operations in sports betting, iGaming and casino games. Given the expected growth in these target markets in the United States and abroad, I believe most investors would be interested in knowing a little more about the company’s business prospects.

Source: Investor Presentation

Source: Investor Presentation

We are talking about an industry leader, which controls nearly 69% of the iLottery market share in the United States. Additionally, the company is targeting a large market of nearly $180 billion. Finally, in my opinion, NeoGames, above all, scores recurring revenue and easy scalability.

Source: Investor Presentation

Source: Investor Presentation

Analysts expect 26% EBITDA margin and 13% FCF margin

Analysts forecast 2024 net sales of $344 million, as well as net sales growth of 8%. In addition, EBITDA will likely be close to $89.2 million with an EBITDA margin of 26%. EBIT should also be close to $44.6 million with an operating margin of 13%. Finally, analysts expect net profit of $31.1 million for 2024, the highest figure since 2019.

Source: Alpha Research

Source: Alpha Research

When it comes to the cash flow statement, in my opinion, what matters is the growth in the free cash flow margin. In 2024, analysts expect free cash flow of $46.2 million and FCF/sales of 13.4%. Furthermore, capital expenditures would amount to only $20.5 million with a capex/sales of 6.0%. I don’t think the company needs a lot of capital expenditure to report profits.

Source: Alpha Research

Source: Alpha Research

Balance sheet

As of June 30, 2022, cash and cash equivalents were $129 million, with restricted deposits worth $0.449 million. Trade receivables were approximately $38 million, with a corporate tax receivable of $11 million and total current assets of $190 million.

With regard to long-lived assets, property, plant and equipment amounted to $4.354 million, intangible assets to $348.259 million and rights of use to $9.132 million. Management also reported a capital note of $1.591 million, the company’s share of a joint venture of $3.924 million and deferred taxes worth $2.147 million. Finally, the total non-current assets obtained were $373.565 million, with total assets worth $563.937 million. With an asset/liability over 2x, in my opinion, NeoGames is in solid financial shape.

Source: Quarterly Report

Source: Quarterly Report

I don’t think the list of passives is worrisome. Trade and other payables were $46 million, trade liabilities were $6 million, and corporate tax payable was $9 million. The company’s most significant liabilities include a deferred payment on the business combination worth $96 million and a contingent consideration on the business combination of $26.550 million. I have included contingent consideration as debt in my financial models, which I believe is conservative. Finally, with employee-related accounts payable and accrued liabilities of $7.2 million, total current liabilities were $193 million.

Non-current liabilities include borrowings worth $3.45 million and borrowings from financial institutions worth $203.451 million. Management also reported lease liabilities of $7.519 million, deferred taxes worth $8.496 million and total non-current liabilities of $224 million. In my opinion, the total amount of financial debt does not seem high. Keep in mind that I’m assuming a future 2024 EBITDA of almost $106 million.

Source: Quarterly Report

Source: Quarterly Report

Internationalization and more contracts could bring fair price to $37.1 per share

I think under normal circumstances, NeoGames will probably be able to sign contracts with more customers in the United States. According to the latest annual report, many customers use lotteries in the United States, but do not have access to iLotteries. If NeoGames expands its services to more territories inside the United States, revenue growth will likely increase. The 20-F stated the following.

While the lottery is offered in 45 states and the District of Columbia, iLottery Instants or DBG are currently only offered in nine states. As a result, 70% of the US population in states that offer lotteries currently do not have access to iLotteries.

With the know-how accumulated in North America, I think it will be easy for NeoGames to offer iLoteries in new territories in Europe or Latin America. In this case, the target market would most likely increase, leading to greater free cash flow growth.

With a history of successful iLottery offerings developed for the North American market, we believe we have the ability to expand our offerings worldwide. (Source: 20-E)

This is just one of the factors leading to the conclusion that the igaming market will grow at a CAGR of 10.11%. This estimate puts the projected value of the market in 2027 at $128.154 billion, nearly double the value in 2020. (Source: Global iGaming to grow at 10% CAGR)

In this scenario, I assumed sales growth close to 10.1% from 2025 to 2029 and an EBITDA margin close to 29%. With an operating margin of around 14% and FCF/Sales close to 10%-16%, free cash flow would be close to 34-94 million dollars. Moreover, with an EV/EBITDA multiple close to 9.7x-10.3x, the exit value would be $1.26 billion.

If we add the resulting free cash flow at a conservative 7% discount and include cash of $129 million and debt worth $232 million, the equity valuation would be $949 million. Finally, the fair price would be $37.1 per share and the IRR would be close to 6.7%.

Bersit DCF model

Bersit DCF model

Fewer contracts or no new contracts can lead to lower revenue growth

The company reports a significant revenue concentration, which I believe is one of the biggest risks for NeoGames. If management does not sign contractual agreements with new customers, negotiations with large customers may result in reduced free cash flow margins. In the last annual report, the company noted that one customer was responsible for 45.3% of total revenue.

We are acting as a contractor to Pollard under its agreement to provide development, implementation, operational support and maintenance to the Michigan State Lottery. The Michigan iLottery represented 45.3% of our revenue during the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 and 54.5% of our revenue during the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020.

NeoGames has made acquisitions in the past and may engage in new M&A activity in the future as management counts with cash in hand. In my opinion, new transactions may not be profitable or may not generate the expected synergies. As a result, NeoGames may lose money or have to write down intangible assets, which may cause the fair value of the business to decline. NeoGames mentioned this risk in the annual report:

In connection with such acquisitions, we may face significant challenges in managing and integrating our expanded or combined operations, including acquired assets, operations and personnel. The integration of Aspire, if completed, could be complicated and time-consuming for our management. We may not be able to successfully integrate Aspire and may not be able to realize and benefit from future synergies, which could adversely affect our business and financial condition.

NeoGames may also not sign new contracts as quickly as in the past. In sum, the absence of new agreements may result in lower sales growth. As a result, some investors would lose patience and might sell their holdings. In the worst case, if enough journalists wrote about declining sales growth, the stock price would fall.

We cannot continue to win new customer business at the same rate as in the past, if at all. There can be no assurance that other U.S. states will seek to implement iLottery offerings or that U.S. states seeking to implement iLottery offerings will do so through a process in which NPI can compete to be the solution provider turnkey. (Source: 20-E)

It is also regrettable that the invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces has adversely affected the company’s economic activity in Ukraine. In my opinion, relocating software developers can be quite costly. In sum, future Russian attacks could result in a significant decrease in future free cash flow.

As of December 31, 2021, we had approximately 211 employees and 1% assets in Ukraine. We do not have income generating activities in Ukraine. We have also invested considerable resources in Ukraine over the past few years. Therefore, wars, political unrest or terrorist attacks in this region could adversely affect our business and operations in Ukraine. On February 24, 2022, Russian military forces invaded Ukraine. (Source: 20-E)

In my worst case scenario, I assumed near 5% to 2.5% sales growth, 25% EBITDA margin, 12.5% ​​FCF/Sales ratio and 10x exit multiple. If we use a 15% WACC, my results include an equity valuation of $267 million and a fair price of $10 per share.

Bersit DCF model

Bersit DCF model


NeoGames operates in markets that are growing at a very decent pace, and the target market totals nearly $180 billion. In my view, if management successfully signs new deals in more US states and perhaps launches international programs in Europe, revenue growth will likely remain high. The scalability of the business model and the recurring nature of NeoGames’ agreements make the company quite interesting. Given expected future free cash flow, in my opinion, NeoGames is quite undervalued at the current market price.

Apple: Relief rally won’t hold (NASDAQ: AAPL) Sun, 30 Oct 2022 14:22:00 +0000

Ivan Balvan/iStock via Getty Images

After a crazy earnings week in tech mega-corporations, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported a decent quarter relative to fears. Landmines hit by other FAANG stocks led the stock to rebound 8% on a strong relief rally in the stock market. My investment thesis remains bearish on Apple as the decent quarter compared to weaker results elsewhere was not enough to justify a rise in the share price.

Considering the solid neighborhood

Apple announced that fourth-quarter 2022 revenue rose 8.1% to $90.1 billion. The tech giant beat analysts’ revenue estimates of $1.4 billion in the quarter.

The company reported the following YoY revenue growth in each unit compared to FQ4’21:

  • Revenue – $70.96 billion from $65.08 billion, up 9%.

  • iPhone – $42.63 billion vs. $38.87 billion, up 10%.

  • Mac – $11.51 billion vs. $9.18 billion, up 25%.

  • iPad – $7.17 billion from $8.25 billion, down 13%.

  • Wearables, home and accessories – $9.65 billion versus $8.79 billion, up 10%.

  • Services – $19.19 billion versus $18.27 billion, up 5%.

Remember that Apple benefited from supply chain disruptions that dampened revenue by up to $4 billion in the prior quarter, with the issues mostly resolving in the quarter. Additionally, the company has been hit by currency headwinds similar to other tech companies. The amounts seem to almost offset each other in the September quarter.

Most telling of the results is that Apple wanted to temper expectations for the key holiday quarter. The tech giant faces a more delayed impact from global recession fears compared to tech giants tied to e-commerce and digital advertising.

During the FQ4’22 earnings call, the CFO highlighted a very difficult quarter ahead:

Overall, we believe the company’s total year-over-year revenue deceleration during the December quarter compared to the September quarter for several reasons.

Although Apple is facing a tough currency blow, the view is very negative compared to the 8% rise in the share price after the release of fourth quarter results. The company expects to take a hit to Mac revenue as well as further weakness in services where recurring revenue was expected to justify the stock’s higher valuation multiple.

The market was likely excited about where sales growth might be without impacting currency rates, but the company is also benefiting from lower commodity prices in areas such as memory. However, the big advantage of catching up on supply constraints in the last two quarters is disappearing in the current quarter.

Disappearance of services

Just a few quarters ago, the Services group was the future of the business. Now services are struggling to grow with Q4 revenue only up 5%

The division recorded the slowest growth rate since the numbers were counted with some opinions that Apple would increase this category of recurring revenue to 20% annual clips. The quarterly numbers are now dropping sequentially after peaking at $19.8 billion in FQ2’22.

Table of services

Source: Six Colors

Apple just announced price increases for many services, a sign that the company is struggling to generate traction in the group. The company made the following price increases due to higher license fees:

Apple Music

  • Individual: $10.99 per month (from $9.99)
  • Family: $16.99 per month (from $14.99)
  • Annual Individual: $109 per year (from $99)


  • Monthly: $6.99 per month (from $4.99)
  • Annual: $69 per year (from $49.99)


  • Individual: $16.95 per month (from $14.95)
  • Family: $22.95 per month (from $19.95)
  • Premier: $32.95 per month (from $29.95)

Average service is about $1 higher, but Apple TV+ service has jumped $2 per month, or 40%. The streaming service is one of the cheapest options out there, but viewers are increasingly in a rush to subscribe to all the different services at higher prices.

The results continue to suggest that Apple customers may be saturated with all the different services. Not to mention that a service like Apple Music isn’t necessarily a market leader like hardware products. CBS ranks Spotify (SPOT) as the best music streaming service with Apple Music as the best alternative option in some scenarios.

Slippage EPS estimates

Weak growth in services is another feather in the cap that calls into question why investors are so willing to pay a higher price for the stock. As highlighted and reinforced by the limited pace and rate of EPS growth in the fourth quarter, current analyst estimates are solid, if not too high.

Table of income estimates

Source: Alpha Research

The FY24 EPS target started the year at $6.88 and the current estimate is down to just $6.80. The stock is already trading at 23x FY24 EPS targets, which is only about 10% above actual EPS for the just-ended fiscal year. Apple is only expected to grow at an annualized rate of around 5%.

All the numbers continue to reinforce Apple has limited growth going forward. The stock is still valued for rapid growth and the reaction to fourth-quarter earnings bolsters the group of investors who are out of tune with the tech giant’s valuation.


The main investor takeaway is that Apple recovered from a decent FQ4 given the environment, but quarterly results weren’t good enough to justify the current valuation. Investors should again use the stock’s irrational rallies to offload stocks.

A new Sony Alpha camera is coming tomorrow – here’s what we know Tue, 25 Oct 2022 15:09:53 +0000


Potentially leaked Sony A7R V image

This image was shared by Sony Alpha Rumors (opens in a new tab) a few days ago, and this is apparently a leaked photo of the Sony A7R V. Main results? Keen eyes might notice that the 4K and Steady Shot markings found on the top of the AR IV are gone.

(Image credit: SonyAlphaRumors)

Sony Alpha launch: what are we waiting for?

There are a lot of rumors about Sony (opens in a new tab) speculating on what the next Sony Alpha camera might be. Reports suggest it will be the Sony A7R Vsuccessor to the 61-megapixel Sony A7R IV (opens in a new tab) which grabbed headlines and reestablished Sony as the leader in the full-frame mirrorless camera market in 2019.

Sony A7R V Rumors
In March, we heard that the Sony A7R V might have a 102MP sensor when it launched, after reporting that the Canon EOS R5S would be 100MP..

Next, we saw a detailed list of leaked Sony A7R V specs, with 9.6K oversampled video, but the same 61MP resolution. (opens in a new tab). Key features published in the report included the ability to shoot 8K video at 30 frames per second.

The latest rumblings suggest that when the Sony A7R V is released, it will be has the same image sensor as its predecessor, but will have a new processor and autofocus system with AI deep learning. And it will be capable of 8K video (with cropping).

According to leaked specs posted on Mirrorless Rumors (opens in a new tab), the Sony A7R V will be able to record cropped 8K video at 24p and 4K video at 60p and 24p that uses full sensor readout. It might feature the same heatsink as the Sony A7S III (opens in a new tab)allowing it to record in 8K for up to 30 minutes without overheating.


(Photo credit: Sony)

How to watch Sony Alpha launch

The Sony Alpha camera launch event will be streamed live via YouTube. You can find the video link at the top of this blog, which is already up as a placeholder.

Alpha Coin (APC) Surges 4352.21%, Outperforms Crypto Market on Saturday Sat, 22 Oct 2022 20:58:37 +0000

Alpha Coin (APC) has been relatively more volatile than the crypto market according to recent market analysis. So far on Saturday, the crypto is up 4352.21% to $0.0005800463362.

InvestorsObserver gives Alpha Coin a volatility rating of 99. Find out what this means for you and get the rest of the rating on Alpha Coin!

Very volatile

InvestorsObserver gives Alpha Coin a high volatility ranking of 99, placing it in the top 1% of cryptos in the market.

The volatility gauge takes into account what makes its score defined by recent trends, rather than a bad day. APC’s high volatility reading is paired with a low reading on the risk/reward gauge, meaning the token has relatively large price swings and is well protected against price manipulation.

Alpha Coin price is trading above the resistance. With support set at -0.000247287621492839 and resistance set at 0.000533238467836375. This positions Alpha Coin out of range and potentially in a volatile position if the rally fizzles out.

What is a token?

Tokens are digital assets that exist on the blockchain of another cryptocurrency.

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Alpha Omega Wealth Management – Thu, 20 Oct 2022 02:09:55 +0000

Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC recently filed its 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.

The 13F report details the stocks that were in a guru’s stock portfolio at the end of the quarter, although investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only an overview of long stock positions. listed in the United States and American certificates of deposit at the end of the quarter. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Yet even this limited repository can provide valuable information.


According to the latest 13F report, the guru’s stock portfolio contained 204 stocks valued at a total of $524.00 million. The top holdings were ODFL (12.26%), JPST (7.81%) and MSFT (2.91%).

According to data from GuruFocus, these were Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC’s top five deals of the quarter.

JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF

Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC reduced its investment in ARCA:JPST by 106,602 shares. The transaction had an impact of 0.95% on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded at an average price of $49.87.

On 10/19/2022, JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF traded at a price of $50.075 per share and a market capitalization of $22.25 billion. The stock has returned 0.14% over the past year.

The data is insufficient to calculate the financial strength and profitability of the stock.

Goldman Sachs Access Ultra Short Bond ETF

The guru established a new position worth 99,562 shares in BATS:GSST, giving the stock a 0.94% weighting in the equity portfolio. The shares traded at an average price of $49.74 during the quarter.

On 10/19/2022, Goldman Sachs Access Ultra Short Bond ETF traded at a price of $49.53 per share and a market capitalization of $510.16 million. The stock has posted a return of -1.22% over the past year.

The data is insufficient to calculate the financial strength and profitability of the stock.

Simon Real Estate Group Inc

During the quarter, Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC purchased 42,544 shares of NYSE:SPG for a total holding of 46,050. The transaction had a 0.73% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded at an average price of $102.29.

On 10/19/2022, Simon Property Group Inc traded at a price of $98.15 per share and a market capitalization of $32.30 billion. The stock has returned -27.07% over the past year.

GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 3 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.

In terms of valuation, Simon Property Group Inc has a price/earnings ratio of 15.39, a price/book ratio of 10.66, an EV/Ebitda ratio of 12.39 and a price/sales ratio of 6.24. .

The GF price/value ratio is 0.81, giving the stock a GF value rank of 7.

AT&T Inc.

During the quarter, Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC purchased 129,623 shares of NYSE:T for a total holding of 458,358. The transaction had a 0.38% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded at an average price of $18.19.

On 10/19/2022, AT&T Inc traded at a price of $15.565 per share and a market capitalization of $111.17 billion. The stock returned -11.33% over the past year.

GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 3 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 7 out of 10.

In terms of valuation, AT&T Inc has a price/earnings ratio of 5.74, a price/book ratio of 0.94, an EV/Ebitda ratio of 4.55 and a price/sales ratio of 0.77.

The GF price/value ratio is 0.95, giving the stock a GF value rank of 6.

JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF

Alpha Omega Wealth Management LLC reduced its investment in BATS:JMST by 37,244 shares. The transaction had an impact of 0.34% on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded at an average price of $50.48.

On 10/19/2022, the JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF traded at a price of $50.325 per share and a market capitalization of $2.51 billion. The stock has returned -0.93% over the past year.

The data is insufficient to calculate the financial strength and profitability of the stock.

Please note that figures and facts quoted are at the time of writing this article and may not reflect the latest business data or company announcements.

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This article is general in nature and does not represent the views of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendation. It has been written without taking into account your personal situation or financial goals. Our goal is to bring you data-driven fundamental analysis. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed to be complete, accurate or in any other way.

Fiserv is an ideal GARP stock (NASDAQ:FISV) Wed, 12 Oct 2022 22:21:00 +0000

MoMo Productions

Compared to many other fintech companies, Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) has held up quite well, down just 10% in the past year. FISV is a great example of a “GARP” (growth at a reasonable price) business that can do well in this uncertain environment. As its legacy payment processing business faces competitive threats, it is on the attack with new products that challenge new entrants like Block (SQ) and PayPal (PYPL). I think stocks can get back into the $110-115 zone, which is up to 20% upside.

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Looking for Alpha

In the company’s second quarter, we see strong results as the company’s acquisition of First Data went smoothly with synergies of $600 million realized well ahead of schedule. Second quarter revenue increased 10% to $4.2 billion, with organic growth of 12%. As a result, Adjusted EPS rose 14% to $1.56. A point of caution is that operating margins of 33.5% were down 40 basis points year over year. Although FISV has several key growth initiatives, these may prove to be slightly lower margin than its historical business.

Fiserv is basically a payment processing company. Its technology platforms enable companies to accept transactions and move money between banks, customers and businesses. It operates in three main segments. The first and most important is commerce, where the FISV enables large and small businesses to transact, with a particular focus on e-commerce and digital transactions.

Merchant revenue grew 14% to $1.9 billion, representing nearly half of the company’s total. Volume growth was 7%, while transaction growth was 5%, a strong result considering that Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) experienced a sequential volume decline of 5 %. There are fears that traditional merchant payment networks could be disrupted by Square’s Cash app, PayPal, or even longer-term threats from decentralized finance providers or something blockchain-related. Fortunately, there was a hidden gem in Fiserv’s purchase of First Data in 2019, an app called Clover, a point-of-sale system for small and medium-sized businesses.

The growth was huge and increased 24% year-over-year in the second quarter, reaching an annualized gross payment volume of $233 billion. By comparison, PayPal’s payment volumes exceed $1.2 trillion per year. Although Clover is now a large-scale company, there is still significant growth potential. Fiserv launched Carat, a Clover lookalike, to target large businesses, and found that pairing Clover with other offerings it has — like Bento for restaurants — can lead to greater usage and up to triple revenue.

Essentially, there is a high-growth fintech disruptor inside a well-established fintech player. With the breadth of its existing relationships, Fiserv was able to deploy Clover quickly and drive substantial growth. Today, Fiserv has a market capitalization of $63 billion. Even after losing two-thirds of its value, PayPal is worth nearly $100 billion. At around 20% size, Clover could be a $20 billion asset that isn’t fully reflected in FISV’s valuation, creating room for upside as it becomes a larger part of the company.

But Fiserv isn’t just disrupting merchant volumes, it’s also disrupting payments. In the second quarter, it delivered 7% revenue growth in its payments and networks group to $1.5 billion. Operating margins were down 80 basis points as increased competition in payments is definitely putting pressure on pricing. However, Fiserv isn’t just letting its core business compete, it’s leading the way as a key processor under the Zelle platform. For those unfamiliar, Zelle is owned by a consortium of major banks to enable person-to-person money transfers. It’s basically their answer to Venmo. As you can see, its users are generally younger Americans, with millennials being the largest cohort.

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This should position the platform for continued growth, and Fiserv is a major beneficiary. It recorded a 35% growth in its Zelle business. This still represents only 2% of its payment business, but it is growing rapidly. Last quarter, it surpassed 1,000 Zelle customers, with hopes of doubling that number in two years. The network effect is expected to allow revenue growth to outpace customer growth, and by 2025 this could be 8-10% of business and growing. Even as the nature of financial transactions changes, Fiserv is positioning itself to be an integral part of the financial system of tomorrow, with key and growing offerings on business-to-consumer and consumer-to-consumer transactions.

As you can see, this led to the company raising its full-year guidance on the revenue front and raising the bottom of its EPS guidance. As mentioned, these new offers and increased competition weighed on operating margins, which will increase less than expected. Still, it’s better to sacrifice margins to position yourself for long-term growth than to try to preserve them but risk falling behind other fintech peers. I’d also like to note that this forecast assumes 200 basis point currency headwinds going forward, worse than last quarter’s -150 basis point performance given continued dollar strength. When the company releases its third quarter results on October 27, I see some risky currencies being a slightly bigger drag.

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Fiserv also revised down its free cash flow conversion, with its second-quarter conversion down just 65% to $658 million. Part of that is due to working capital, which has been a headwind of $463 million year-to-date. Holding working capital constant, free cash flow would have been approximately $1.55 billion in the first half. The other reason is that its cap-ex spend has jumped from $500 million to over $700 million since the start of the year. I see this as positive, as FISV’s investments in Clover, Carat and Zelle are generating significant growth and helping to sustain the business. Sacrificing some cash today to accelerate these investments and expand their infrastructure is a prudent long-term decision.

Additionally, the company is still on track to generate approximately $3.5 billion in free cash flow this year. This allows for regular share buybacks, including $500 million last quarter. It has now fallen to 651 million shares outstanding, down 3.3% year-on-year. It should be able to continue to reduce its number of shares at 3-5% per year, even with this faster rate of cap-ex.

My only negative point is that the company has $21.5 billion in debt incurred to acquire First Data. $4.8 billion of this amount matures over the next two years, and $3.4 billion is floating rate. Management is directing cash flow primarily toward buybacks rather than debt reduction. Thus, given the rise in interest rates, its interest expense could increase by $125 million to $175 million, or about $0.25 per share. It’s a manageable headwind but a headwind nonetheless.

Fiserv offers a unique blend of a highly cash-generating business from its heritage as an entrenched player in the plumbing of the financial system, along with the advantage of growing new products that could become essential to the financial system of the future. This gives him the capital to buy back shares and invest in growth initiatives. Even with currency headwinds and slowing legacy volume growth in a declining economy, as management begins to discuss the outlook for 2023, it should be at least high single digits as Clover and, in a lesser extent, Zelle, stimulate growth.

With around $7 in future earnings power, the stock only trades at 13.5x, which is attractive given the undervalued growth companies it’s building. I think the company deserves a multiple closer to the broader market, given its quality and growth attributes, or at least 16x, indicating a fair value of around $113, which gives the stock a 20% upside %. For investors looking for a cash flow generating company with the potential to grow at a reasonable multiple, Fiserv is a great opportunity.