Airlines can’t cut quickly enough to cope with unprecedented collapse in global travel demand

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It is almost obvious that no business can stay in business if its number of customers, and therefore its revenue, drops 87% year over year. Yet data from the Transportation Security Administration shows that this is exactly the situation that US airlines find themselves in today.

As of Tuesday, only 279,018 people – not all of whom were even air travelers – were allowed through TSA security checkpoints at U.S. airports. On the same day last year, more than 2.15 million people passed through these same checkpoints. This is a drop of 87.1%. And it represents the lowest TSA checkpoint throughput since the TSA began reporting its daily throughput totals.

By the time public concern over the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus prompted TSA officials to start publishing daily debit reports on March 4, travel demand was already down by around 9 percentage points. percentage compared to the same day in 2019. Subsequently, the daily totals fell rapidly. within the 80% range. As of March 10, they had fallen to just 79% of flow on the same day / year before. On Sunday, March 22, the TSA allowed only 18% more people at airport checkpoints than on the same day in 2019. (Sunday is typically the busiest travel day of the week, as business travelers leave for a week; road and leisure travelers return from weekend trips).

On Monday, the figure fell to 14% before hitting a new low of 12.9% on Tuesday.

And that’s just the story in the United States.

“This is truly unprecedented,” says Addison Schonland, aviation analyst at AirInsights. “And what’s scary is that it’s not like what happened after 9/11, with just the shutdown of the US airline market. It is happening on a global scale. TSA figures are for the United States only, but they accurately reflect the global situation; what is happening everywhere else too.

What makes that 12.9% figure even more pathetic is the fact that the number of people allowed through airport security checkpoints also includes those who work for airlines – pilots, flight attendants, gatekeepers, mechanics. and others – as well as airport employees and employees of shops and restaurants located on the secure or “air” side of the terminals. None of these people – even pilots and attendants – count as “travelers” and, therefore, their inclusion in TSA’s daily throughput totals shows demand slightly inflated.

The rapidly deteriorating passenger demand situation is causing airlines to fall behind in their efforts to cut operations – and costs – and keep them roughly in step with falling demand.

“They are drastically reducing thefts,” Schonland said. “But the situation overtook them much faster than they could have been prepared to handle. They just can’t get out of this (overcapacity) situation quickly enough. “

Carriers are also hampered in their efforts to reduce their schedules and operations by a few other factors.

“They sold seats. They should deliver them, ”Schonland said, noting that while many travelers have voluntarily canceled or delayed their travel plans, some still have a strong need or even desire to fly now.

Additionally, carriers are forced to wait until Congress passes so-called “bailout” legislation to provide cash grants and loans to airlines, airports, and related businesses to keep them in business and maintain checks for cash. pay workers. Until the House also approves the new Senate bill, airlines are trying to avoid angering House members and Senators by canceling too many flights that operate to states and cities of origin of legislators.

The bailout deal was struck in the wee hours of Wednesday morning between the White House and Republican senators on one side, and Democratic senators and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the other side. It would provide passenger airlines with up to $ 25 billion in subsidies to pay employee salaries and benefits through September, as well as access to up to $ 25 million in loans. The government could end up taking stakes – without voting rights – in carriers in exchange for this financial assistance.

Freight carriers would get up to $ 4 billion in employee-focused subsidies. And support businesses such as in-flight caterers could get up to $ 3 billion. Recipients of the money would not be allowed to put workers on leave or reduce their wages until September 30.

United Airlines said on Wednesday that from Friday it would cut its domestic flight schedule to just 48% of what it was before the coronavirus event began. Currently, United’s domestic schedule is officially only 58% of what it was before. Internationally, United says it has cut its international service by more than 90% and currently continues to offer just six international flights to destinations in Asia, Australia, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe. These international flights continue primarily to help foreign nationals stranded in the United States to return home and American citizens stranded in foreign countries to return here.

Delta said late last week it was aiming for a 70% reduction in overall capacity, including international service, and will park 600 planes, or about two-thirds of its fleet. But neither he nor American have announced further cuts to domestic services as United announced on Wednesday. Both, however, are expected to do so soon. According to their most recent statements, Delta operates a national schedule that is 40% of the size of its pre-COVID-19 schedule, while American is at 70% of its pre-COVID-19 schedule, nationally. . American has cut its international service by 75%.

Meanwhile, Southwest, which carries more domestic passengers than any other airline, has already cut 1,000 flights per day from its schedule and by next week that total will increase to 1,500. Ahead of the COVID-event. 19, Southwest operated more than 4,000 flights per day.

Passenger carriers generally carry relatively modest amounts of cargo on their flights. But the loss of such belly cargo capacity due to the reduction in passenger flights has created a great demand for what remains of the belly cargo space. In fact, American offers a small number of cargo flights just to meet this demand, which the carrier has not done since bringing its dedicated cargo fleet to a standstill in the mid-1980s.

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